Uncertainty quantification and apportionment in air quality models using the polynomial chaos method

Abstract

Current air quality models generate deterministic forecasts by assuming perfect model, perfectly known parameters, and exact input data. However, our knowledge of the physics is imperfect. It is of interest to extend the deterministic simulation results with “error bars” that quantify the degree of uncertainty, and analyze the impact of the uncertainty input on the simulation results. This added information provides a confidence level for the forecast results. Monte Carlo (MC) method is a popular approach for air quality model uncertainty analysis, but it converges slowly. This work discusses the polynomial chaos (PC) method that is more suitable for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in large-scale models. We propose a new approach for uncertainty apportionment (UA), i.e., we develop a PC approach to attribute the uncertainties in model results to different uncertainty inputs. The UQ and UA techniques are implemented in the Sulfur Transport Eulerian Model (STEM-III). A typical scenario of air pollution in the northeast region of the USA is considered. The UQ and UA results allow us to assess the combined effects of different input uncertainties on the forecast uncertainty. They also enable to quantify the contribution of input uncertainties to the uncertainty in the predicted ozone and PAN concentrations.