Uncertainty Propagation of Fission Product Yields from Uranium and Plutonium in Pebble-Bed HTGR Burnup Calculation

Abstract

Quantifying fission product yield uncertainty contribution to reactor burnup calculation is an important aspect of pebble-bed High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (pebble-bed HTGR) uncertainty analysis. In this work, uncertainty propagation of fission product yield to pebble-bed HTGR burnup calculation is conducted. Uncertainty of fission product yields from four fissile isotopes, namely 233U, 235U, 239Pu and 241Pu, are considered. The stochastic sampling-based uncertainty analysis method is adopted and fission product yield covariance matrices are estimated from ENDF/B-VII.1. The covariance matrix for each fissile actinide is estimated based on the Bayesian method and fission product yields are assigned with log-normal distribution in the sampling process with the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Since the fission fraction from 239Pu plays an important role in fissions of fuels with high burnup value in pebble-bed HTGR, the fission product yield uncertainty contribution from 239Pu is highlighted in this work. The result shows that, in the burnup equilibrium state of pebble-bed HTGR, fission product yield uncertainty contributions from 235U and 239Pu to relative uncertainty of keff are 0.027% and 0.026%, respectively. The overall uncertainty contribution from four fissile isotopes (233U, 235U, 239Pu and 241Pu) to relative uncertainty of equilibrium core keff is 0.038%. Furthermore, fission product yield uncertainty has an important contribution to the nuclide density uncertainty of fission products. The most relative uncertainty, 10.82%, is observed in 109Ag contributed from the fission product yield uncertainty of 239Pu at the burnup equilibrium state. This indicates the uncertainty contribution from the fission product yield of 239Pu cannot be neglected in pebble-bed HTGR burnup uncertainty analysis.