Uncertainty of Predictions in Supervised Pest Control in Winter Wheat: Its Price and Causes

Abstract

In supervised control, the economically optimal timing of pesticide application is equivalent with the level of pest attack where projected costs of immediate control just equal projected costs of no control. This level is called the damage threshold. Uncertainty about the costs of different strategies of chemical control of aphids (especially Sitobion avenae) and brown rust (Puccinia recondita) is calculated with a deterministic model. Sources of uncertainty, which comprise estimates of initial state and parameters, future weather, and white noise, are modelled as random inputs. Consequences of uncertainty for damage thresholds are analyzed. The relative importance of various sources of uncertainty for prediction uncertainty is calculated using a novel procedure.