Abstract
The measured coefficient of consolidation can have a substantial degree of variation even in a uniform clay layer. The probability characteristic values for such parameters as consolidation coefficient and compression modulus are analyzed from local engineering data. This paper, through a probabilistic analysis, examines the variability of one-dimensional consolidation solutions. The multilayer models are evaluated. Then the Monte Carlo method is used to develop solutions for one dimensional consolidation. It identified the influence of the parameter uncertainty on the probability characteristic of the consolidation degree. The uncertainty of consolidation coefficient has a great impact on the probabilistic characteristics of the consolidation degree, but for compression modulus it is opposite true. It proposed a simplification analysis method that considers only the uncertainty of consolidation coefficient without consideration of the uncertainty of compression modulus, and its erroneous precision can meet the engineering requirements.
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