Abstract
The uncertainties associated with concrete arch dams rise with the increased height of dams. Given the uncertainties associated with influencing factors, the stability of high arch dam abutments as a fuzzy random event was studied. In addition, given the randomness and fuzziness of calculation parameters as well as the failure criterion, hazard point and hazard surface uncertainty instability risk ratio models were proposed for high arch dam abutments on the basis of credibility theory. The uncertainty instability failure criterion was derived through the analysis of the progressive instability failure process on the basis of Shannon’s entropy theory. The uncertainties associated with influencing factors were quantized by probability or possibility distribution assignments. Gaussian random theory was used to generate random realizations for influence factors with spatial variability. The uncertainty stability analysis method was proposed by combining the finite element analysis and the limit equilibrium method. The instability risk ratio was calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation method and fuzzy random postprocessing. Results corroborate that the modeling approach is sound and that the calculation method is feasible.
Highlights
The antisliding stability of dam abutments is critical in ensuring the safety of high concrete arch dams, which are faced with complex geological conditions, such as soft rock strata and fault fracture zone, as well as impacted by multiple loads, such as water pressure, silt pressure, temperature load, and seismic load [1]
The safety coefficient of an antisliding stability method is mostly commonly used in traditional methods for concrete arch dams, among which overload safety and strength reduction safety coefficients are widely used in the design as well as safety evaluation of dams
The stress and strain distribution obtained by the finite element method (FEM) is plugged into the rigid body limit equilibrium method and combined with a Gaussian random field (GRF) model and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), thereby proposing the hazard point instability risk and hazard surface instability risk models
Summary
The antisliding stability of dam abutments is critical in ensuring the safety of high concrete arch dams, which are faced with complex geological conditions, such as soft rock strata and fault fracture zone, as well as impacted by multiple loads, such as water pressure, silt pressure, temperature load, and seismic load [1]. Given the monitoring error and the fluctuation of themselves, the water pressure, dead load, silt pressure, and seepage pressure acting on high concrete dams are associated with uncertainties [5] Certain loads, such as dead and temperature drop loads, are beneficial to antisliding stability [6], in which seeking out the adverse combination of loads by adopting the probabilistic risk analysis method is possible. The current research on dam abutment antisliding stability falls into the following two categories: (1) the rigid body method and (2) the deformable body method [11] The former obtains antislide stability safety coefficient through a comparison of shear resistance strength with shear force on the sliding surface, whereas the latter applies the simulation analysis method to obtain the stress and strain distribution, thereby qualitatively analyzing the system stability as well as quantitatively giving out the stability safety degree. The stress and strain distribution obtained by the finite element method (FEM) is plugged into the rigid body limit equilibrium method and combined with a Gaussian random field (GRF) model and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), thereby proposing the hazard point instability risk and hazard surface instability risk models
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