Uncertainty in the National Energy Modeling System. II: Analysis of Results

Abstract

This is the second of two papers on characterizing the uncertainty present in key elements of the U.S. Department of Energy's new National Energy Modeling System. The theory behind the assessment procedures developed was described in the first paper, and the current work presents the important numerical results and analyses of our experiments, all done as a collaborative effort between the Energy Information Administration, the Washington Consulting Group, and the School of Information Technology and Engineering of George Mason University. The method testing involved the three most important National Energy Modeling System submodel types, namely, linear optimization, econometric, and heuristic or balance equations. The results of using the uncertainty procedures on the Energy Information Administration's transportation sector demand and petroleum market models are provided here.