Uncertainty in telecommunication network design

Abstract

Abstract: The design of telecommunication networks is a complex activity involving a vast amount of input data and numerous design rules. Much of the data is estimated and many of the rules are based upon experiential knowledge. The use of existing uncertainty techniques in expert systems is not really suited to the complexity of telecommunication network design. Having investigated the uncertainty problem, it is believed that a more rational method has been found for use in this application area. The paper presents the ‘Uncertainty Window’technique and its testing on one aspect of network design, namely that of network synchronisation.The essence of this uncertainty process is one of associating individual uncertainty windows with the relevant rules, data and facts of a design problem, which results in providing the network designer with an insight into the possible uncertainties within a design at each stage of the process. It indicates which information sources provide the dominant uncertainty and which assumptions are critical, needing further investigation, in order to improve the level of confidence in the overall design. The windowing technique works by virtue of its ability to retain the composition of the uncertainties within the problem and their associated values, assumptions, and so forth and allows for better solutions to be obtained.