Abstract
Objective: The aim of this study is to extend our knowledge about uncertainty in fertility intentions from a life course perspective. We want to find out if life course markers such as economic circumstances, relationship status, family size, and the so-called “biological clock” (getting older) influence uncertainty in fertility intentions. Uncertainty in fertility intentions is the state in which individuals are not sure whether they will have (more) children.
 Background: Determining what drives uncertainty in fertility intentions may lead to a better understanding of fertility decision-making and its outcomes.
 Method: We use German panel data (German Family Panel, pairfam) for three birth cohorts (1971-73, 1981-83, 1991-93), and employ multinomial fixed-effects logit models as well as bivariate analyses based on waves 1 to 11.
 Results: Uncertainty in fertility intentions is volatile across an individual’s life course, serving as a transitional phase between certainly intending and not intending to have any (more) children. Approaching the end of the reproductive life span (getting older), separating from a partner, having two or more children, and, for men, subjective economic fears increase the odds of being uncertain.
 Conclusion: By showing that uncertainty in fertility intentions is a volatile concept and that relevant life course markers shape this volatility, we provide new insights into the process of fertility decision-making.
Highlights
In recent decades, the analysis of fertility desires and intentions has played a crucial role in explaining fertility behavior, especially in the context of low-fertility countries
Objective: The aim of this study is to extend our knowledge about uncertainty in fertility intentions from a life course perspective
When we look at the evidence on the effects of partnership status on fertility intentions, we see that not having a partner appears to increase the level of uncertainty, while having a partner or being married seems to decrease it (Berrington 2004; Ní Bhrolcháin & Beaujouan 2011; Jones 2017)
Summary
The analysis of fertility desires and intentions has played a crucial role in explaining fertility behavior, especially in the context of low-fertility countries. We will focus on the issue of uncertain fertility intentions; i.e., the state in which individuals or couples are not sure whether they will have (more) children This topic has been largely neglected in the literature on fertility intentions. Observation period of 2008 to 2019, the level of fertility (based on the total fertility rate) in Germany was among the lowest in Europe, at between 1.3 and 1.6 children per woman (Destatis 2019a). Most of these births occurred within partnerships (Bastin, Kreyenfeld & Schnor 2013).
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