Uncertainty in expert knowledge of forest succession: A case study from boreal Ontario

Abstract

Expert knowledge of forest succession is used widely in forest management planning, but its level of uncertainty is unknown. Using boreal Ontario as an example, we examined the level of uncertainty in expert knowledge of forest succession and explored possible sources of this uncertainty. Overall, the level of uncertainty associated with expert knowledge was high for all aspects of forest succession, except for post-fire species establishment. Higher levels of uncertainty were associated with knowledge of forest succession for mixed forest types and moderate site conditions, as opposed to coniferous or non-coniferous forest types and extreme dry/wet or poor/rich sites. We hypothesize that uncertainty in expert knowledge is highest when vegetation dynamics are highly stochastic as with complex species assemblages, environmental controls on succession are weak, and effects of disturbances are less drastic. Awareness about the degree of uncertainty in expert knowledge of forest succession could be incorporated into forest management decision processes. It could also help researchers to identify critical knowledge gaps to guide further studies. Key words: uncertainty assessment, post-fire establishment, natural succession, knowledge elicitation