Uncertainty in differential settlements of bridge foundations and retaining walls

Abstract

ABSTRACT In the bridge design specifications of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) using the Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) method, the loads and resulting force effects are given two-letter designations, e.g. “SE” for “force effects due to settlement”. The SE load factor is used to develop factored values of the induced force effects such as moments and shears in a bridge structure due to foundation movements. In 2018 AASHTO committees voted to adopt calibrated values of the SE load factors that account for the uncertainty in predicted foundation movements from different analytical methods. However, additional uncertainty can occur in the differential settlements. This paper explores the additional uncertainty in differential settlements of bridge foundations and retaining walls using the datasets for two analytical methods that were used by AASHTO to develop the SE load factors for foundation settlement. Normalised probability exceedance charts (NPECs), that integrate the concept of reliability index and data correlation, have been developed and their application in bridge and wall design process is discussed for a variety of scenarios. Guidance is provided for the practical implementation of differential settlement in bridge analysis through an example problem.