Uncertainty in China's food self-sufficiency: A dynamic system assessment

Abstract

In a tightly interconnected world, China's food self-sufficiency (FSS) significantly affects global food security. This study incorporates multiple external disturbance risks to improve food security measures through ensemble modeling. On the premise that all people have fair access to food distribution that meets dietary nutritional needs, we estimate China's food supply-demand status in the past 30 years and predict future uncertainty. Results show that the large-scale spatial displacement of farming threatens food supply sustainability. More than current cropland productivity is needed to meet the needs of all food types (with a 5.63 % room for improvement by grain-crop sown area). Despite this, China has high-level food security and stability now. The lower uncertainty limit for the FSS rate will gradually fall below 90 % between 2037 and 2049 only when external disturbances occur simultaneously and remain at the highest level. Consequently, our focus should shift from short-term self-sufficiency to long-term system resilience.