Abstract
In this paper we report the predictive uncertainty associated with using the retardation factor ( RF) as an index to evaluate pesticide leaching in Hawaii soils when uncertainty exists within the soil and chemical data used to excite the RF model. Our analysis takes two separate but ultimately related tacks. First, we assess the uncertainty caused by extrapolating soil properties between taxonomic categories. Second, we characterize the amount of uncertainty for calculated RF values due to data uncertainty by using first-order uncertainty analysis. Our results indicate that the RF index should only be used with soil information from the lowest taxonomic category and that even then considerable uncertainty will exist in the predicted RF values used to screen and rank chemicals.
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