Uncertainty-Dependent Warning Threshold for Spacecraft Rendezvous Collision Probability

Abstract

This paper proposes a warning threshold calculation method for instantaneous collision probability in a spacecraft rendezvous mission. By introducing missing alarm probability, the warning threshold is determined as a function of the propagated trajectory uncertainty and a semianalytical calculation model is presented. The simulation results show that the proposed method makes good use of trajectory uncertainty information and provides a reasonable and accurate method for evaluating the safety of a rendezvous trajectory with uncertainty.