Abstract
This paper examines the role of confidence in Chinese monetary policy under uncertainty. Using a smooth transition vector autoregression (STVAR) model conditional on uncertainty, we find that monetary policy is considerably less effective in high-uncertainty status. We further conduct counterfactual decompositions to isolate the role of confidence in the transmission of monetary policy shocks, and show that the effectiveness of proactive monetary policy is reduced if it fails to inspire entrepreneurs’ confidence. These results are robust to alternative measurements of uncertainty.
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