Abstract
How robust is our assessment of impacts to ecosystems and species from a rapidly changing climate during the 21st century? We examine the challenges of uncertainty, complexity and constraints associated with applying climate projections to understanding future biological responses. This includes an evaluation of how to incorporate the uncertainty associated with different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and climate models, and constraints of spatiotemporal scales and resolution of climate data into impact assessments. We describe the challenges of identifying relevant climate metrics for biological impact assessments and evaluate the usefulness and limitations of different methodologies of applying climate change to both quantitative and qualitative assessments. We discuss the importance of incorporating extreme climate events and their stochastic tendencies in assessing ecological impacts and transformation, and provide recommendations for better integration of complex climate–ecological interactions at relevant spatiotemporal scales. We further recognize the compounding nature of uncertainty when accounting for our limited understanding of the interactions between climate and biological processes. Given the inherent complexity in ecological processes and their interactions with climate, we recommend integrating quantitative modeling with expert elicitation from diverse disciplines and experiential understanding of recent climate-driven ecological processes to develop a more robust understanding of ecological responses under different scenarios of future climate change. Inherently complex interactions between climate and biological systems also provide an opportunity to develop wide-ranging strategies that resource managers can employ to prepare for the future.
Highlights
The Earth’s climate is experiencing rapid heating caused by an increasing accumulation of human-induced greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
We examine the issues of uncertainty, complexity, and constraints associated with assessing the impacts of a rapidly changing climate on ecosystems and species
As we discuss one of the primary sources of uncertainty in climate change stems from differences across climate models, which is more relevant for the near- and mid-term than differences across emissions scenarios
Summary
The Earth’s climate is experiencing rapid heating caused by an increasing accumulation of human-induced greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. We discuss the uncertainty associated with future climate projections, the complexity of assessing relationships between climate and biological processes, the constraints associated with the availability of climate data and appropriate metrics for determining potential future stress to ecosystems and species, the relevance of extreme climate events, and how to build robustness into our understanding of future biological responses. We discuss practices that: (1) incorporate the uncertainty associated with future climate projections and ecological impacts modeling; (2) more adequately integrate complexity that is not effectively captured in quantitative modeling; and (3) develop understanding of meaningful climate-biological sensitivities and generate relevant climate data where none exists. We argue here that the challenges of addressing uncertainty, complexity, and constraints do not justify inaction; We draw upon our collective experience to describe commonly encountered challenges and effective approaches for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on ecological systems. Discuss incorporate the uncertainty with future climate projectionsWe andspecifically ecological impacts two cases(2)
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