Uncertainty by Design

Abstract

This chapter introduces the concept of scenario planning, which is used by states, large corporations, and local organizations to imagine and prepare for future uncertainties. Scenario technology typically works around the construct of risk and the related notion of risk management. The term uncertainty by design is an approach that accepts the open-endedness of the future while at the same time facilitating techniques to manage it that go beyond practices based on or involving the calculation of possibilities. The chapter notes the usage of scenario technology in analyzing scenario narratives and practices at the National Emergency Management Authority in Israel, the World Health Organization's Regional Office for Europe (WHO Europe), and the World Energy Council. It cites that the focus on uncertainty shifts the discussion on modernity and governance from the risk society approach to the idea of potentialities both in security and in profit.