Uncertainty based distributed generation expansion planning in electricity markets

Abstract

Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. The distributed generation expansion planning is certainly one of the problems where it is difficult to find an optimal solution for, due to the existence of various uncertain parameters that affect the optimal solution. This paper presents a distributed generation planning strategy based on the multi-objective decision making (MODM) approach under uncertainties. The proposed strategy achieves a Pareto set of locations, sizes, and typical types, for new DG installations in a case-study power network (as the result of a multi-objective optimization). The technical constraints of DG units are also considered in the MODM process. The effects of the uncertain parameters on choosing the best plan(s) are considered using robustness, flexibility, and risk exposure attributes. This aim is performed based on a composite index which is weighted sum of the three mentioned attributes. This paper considers four categories of uncertain parameters including the peak loading factor, electricity market price, and investment and operating costs for the DG long-term planning.