Uncertainty assessment of spatial domain models in early stage mining projects – A review

Abstract

• Performance of feasibility studies in mining projects is poor which could be due to omission of quantitative uncertainty assessments in public reporting. • JORC 2012 standards require quantitative uncertainty assessment for geological and spatial domain models. • Current methodologies of quantitative uncertainty assessment and communication exist and can be used in early-stage mining projects. • Professional development and incorporating software and process workflows could be the way to go to improve current reporting practice. Sustainability of mining projects is linked to informed investment decisions based on public reporting of exploration and mineral resource estimation results. In Australia, guidelines for public reporting are established by the Joint Ore Reserves Committee reporting code through the JORC Code (2012). Although assessment of uncertainty in the results reported is a requirement, this is often communicated in a qualitative manner and subjectively evaluated. This can become a liability if not communicated effectively, particularly in early stages of mining projects when spatial domains of geological interpretation and mineralization envelopes influence reliability of resource estimates. This review describes methodologies for quantitative uncertainty assessment and communication, and explores how they could be applied in public reporting practice. The complexity, cost and additional work of doing a quantitative assessment could hinder a straightforward implementation. This could be overcome if mining companies budget for quantitative uncertainty assessment and associated professional development. A compulsory requirement for inclusion of uncertainty assessments in public reporting or use of standardized subjective language would improve industry practice.