Abstract
In order to evaluate the future storm surge risk at the national scale, it is necessary to evaluate typhoon characteristics for a country-specific in prior to conducting storm surge simulation using them. When projecting future changes of tropical cyclones (TC) by using the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), there are several uncertainties due to model resolution, model physics parameterization, given sea surface temperature (SST) under future climate condition, and global warming scenarios. The uncertainties stemming from physics and numerical modeling configuration can be reduced by improving the accuracy of AGCMs, while those from the global warming scenario and future SST condition are unable to be. This study assessed uncertainties in projecting future change to typhoon properties such as tracks, frequency and intensity and extreme storm surge height (SSH) depending of future SST and greenhouse gas emission scenarios.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/Wzp35k4tyhM
Highlights
In order to evaluate the future storm surge risk at the national scale, it is necessary to evaluate typhoon characteristics for a country-specific in prior to conducting storm surge simulation using them
The uncertainties stemming from physics and numerical modeling configuration can be reduced by improving the accuracy of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), while those from the global warming scenario and future sea surface temperature (SST) condition are unable to be
CLIMITE EXPERIMENTS AND TYPHON DATA To evaluate the effects of the future SST change patterns and greenhouse gas emission scenarios on the projection of future storm surge height (SSH), the output of climate experiments with four SST conditions and three global warming scenarios was used
Summary
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION SCENARIOS INTRODUCTION In order to evaluate the future storm surge risk at the national scale, it is necessary to evaluate typhoon characteristics for a country-specific in prior to conducting storm surge simulation using them.
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