Uncertainty and the study of cyber deterrence

Abstract

While the employment of cyber strategies creates uncertainties for policymakers, the challenges are often even greater for scholars who explore these strategies. In this chapter, I propose one direction to help scholars address these challenges. Rather than focusing on the effectiveness of strategies, as most scholars do, I propose we can draw important points from studying the adoption of a certain strategy. I briefly demonstrate this by exploring Israel’s puzzling cyber deterrence policy since the 2010s. While Israel tends to rely on a strategy of deterrence vis-à-vis various challenges, it has not adopted a clear cyber deterrence strategy. Nonetheless, around the early 2010s, and as part of strategization of the cyber domain, Israel seemed to increase emphasis on cyber deterrence. Discussing this case demonstrates the utility of focusing on the adoption of the strategy and how this solution may prove useful in addressing scholars’ uncertainties regarding the study of the cyber domain.