Uncertainty analysis using a fugacity-based multimedia mass-balance model: Application of the updated EQC model to decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5)

Abstract

The EQuilibrium Criterion (EQC) model developed and published in 1996 was recently revised to include improved treatment of input partitioning and reactivity data, temperature dependence and an easier sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. This New EQC model was used to evaluate the multimedia, fugacity-based fate of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5; CAS No. 541-02-6) in the environment over a temperature range of 1–25°C. In addition, Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis was used to quantitatively determine the influence of temperature and input partitioning and reactivity data on the behavior of D5 under various emission scenarios. Results indicated that emission mode was the most influential factor determining the fate and distribution of D5 in the model environment. When emitted to air and soil, D5 partitioned to and remained in the air compartment where rates of removal from degradation and advection processes were relatively rapid. In contrast, D5 emitted to water resulted in a substantial mass fraction of D5 being accumulated in the sediment compartment, where rates of removal from degradation and advection processes were slow. The mass distributions and fate of D5 in the model environment were strongly influenced by multiple input parameters, including temperature, the mode of emission (especially emission rate to water), KOC and half-life in air. As temperature decreased from 25°C to 1°C, KOC and half-life in air became increasingly more influential such that the mass distribution of D5 increased in air and decreased in sediment, resulting in decreased overall persistence.