Uncertainty Analysis on Process Organized Emission Inventory in Petrochemical Enterprises of Hainan Province

Abstract

The study qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated the uncertainty of the emission inventory of SO2, NOx, particulate matter (PM) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) based on the measurement method in the process of organized sources in eight typical petroleum refining enterprises in Hainan Province in 2017. According to the TRACE-P inventory grading, the activity level data uncertainty was between I and II, and the emission factor rating was roughly C-level. The qualitative assessment of the emission inventory is “good”. The Monte Carlo simulation model was used to quantitatively evaluate the uncertainty. The results show that the uncertainties in emission inventory of SO2, NOx, PM and NMVOCs are ±2.9%, ±6.3%, ±7.6% and ±13.7%, respectively, with the highest uncertainty in NMVOCs emissions. The study on emission inventory uncertainty will help decision makers to scientifically formulate air pollutant control strategies for the accessibility of pollutant emission reduction targets of petrochemical enterprises and guide the improvement of emission inventory and data collection.