Uncertainty analysis of wind power based on levelized cost of energy

Abstract

With the development of wind power, the development of wind turbines (WTs) is becoming larger, and the uncertainty in the cost of WTs is also amplified. This paper proposes a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) model considering the rate of the production price index and consumer price index based on the gross domestic product. To analyze the uncertainty factors in this model, the Monte Carlo method and the quasiMonte Carlo method are used to perform multiple experiments based on the wind speed parameters c and k and the probability density function (PDF) of the air density. The wind parameters are estimated by the mean variance method, the maximum likelihood estimation method, and the Bayesian estimation method. The PDF of LCOE and sensitivity analysis of various uncertainty factors on LCOE are obtained. The analysis results show that combining the local wind speed and air density parameters, the uncertainty factors that have a greater impact on LCOE are air density and wind speed parameter c. The air density should be become an important factor to consider when considering LCOE of WT.