Uncertainty Analysis of Water Budget for Jinan Spring Basin Based on Numerical Model

Abstract

Groundwater numerical simulation is affected by many uncertain factors, which directly influence the precision and reliability of simulation results. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the influence of these factors. This paper studied the influence of the uncertainty of sources and sinks on the water budget and the effect on the constant spring flow. Jinan spring basin was chosen as a case study, and a groundwater numerical simulation model was established. In the model, precipitation, groundwater exploitation, and boundary conditions are selected for the local sensitivity analysis. The analysis showed that precipitation is the most important factor affecting the water budget in Jinan spring basin, whilst groundwater exploitation is the most sensitive factor for spring flow. Upon consideration of the impact of these two factors, six different scenarios were developed for the numerical simulation, and quantitative analysis was conducted of the impact of the uncertainties from the sources and sinks on Jinan spring. The results of this study can provide a scientific reference for the effective use of groundwater resources on the constant gushing of Jinan springs.