Uncertainty Analysis of Load Combination Factors for Global Longitudinal Bending Moments of Double-hull Tankers

Abstract

The present article aims at assessing the probabilistic characteristics of the load combination factors for global longitudinal bending moments of double-hull tankers. The calculations are performed based on a sample of oil tankers representative of the range of application of the Association of Classification Societies' (IACS)–Common Structural Rules (CSR) design rules. The article starts by reviewing the probabilistic models that have been proposed to model stillwater and wave-induced loads and their characteristic extreme values. Different load combination methods are also reviewed including an analytical method that provides the combined characteristic value of stillwater and wave-induced bending moments based on the Poisson assumption for upcrossing events and using the first-order reliability method in combination with the point-crossing method. The predictions of the different load combination methods are assessed on the basis of a sample of five oil tankers adopted during the IACS-CSR design rules development process. A parametric and an uncertainty propagation study are then performed to identify the range of variation and the probabilistic models of the load combination factors that are applicable to double-hull tankers.