Uncertainty analysis of critical loads for terrestrial ecosystems in Russia

Abstract

The goal of this study is to give a comprehensive and quantitative estimation of the uncertainty of computed in different scale nitrogen (N) and sulphur (S) critical loads (CL) values for terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Asia, European part and the North-Western regions of Russia. The CL values are used to set goals for future deposition rates of acidifying compounds so that the environment is protected. In this research CL values for terrestrial ecosystems are determined using the expert-modelling geoinformation system (EM GIS) approach. UNCSAM software package is used as the tool for uncertainty analysis. The analysis presented here focuses on the estimation and effect of the input source uncertainties and sensitivities on the CL values in various regions under study. In spite of the region, nitrogen uptake by vegetation, nitrogen leaching from terrestrial ecosystems and the difference between deposition and uptake by plants of base cations (BC) are the most influential factors for all terrestrial ecosystems of Russia.