Uncertainty analysis for bulk power systems reliability evaluation using Taylor series and nonparametric probability density estimation

Abstract

Abstract The uncertainties in reliability evaluation model are fundamentally classified into aleatory and epistemic types. Aleatory uncertainty arises from the intrinsic randomness associated with a physical system, such as components stochastic failure and repair process. Epistemic uncertainty, on the other hand, results from an incomplete or inaccurate scientific understanding of the underlying process, such as component reliability parameters uncertainty. It’s significant for risk based decision to distinguish the two kinds of uncertainties and quantify their impacts on reliability analysis. In literatures, most of papers focused on aleatory uncertainty, and only a few of them discussed the epistemic uncertainty. This paper is aimed to address uncertainty analysis of reliability indices considering the randomness of reliability parameters. Two goals are achieved in this paper. Firstly, the reliability indices are approximated through Taylor series with high efficiency after component parameters change, and its accuracy is compared with rerunning reliability evaluation. Secondly, to uncover the uncertainty propagation from input reliability parameters level to reliability evaluation output level, two methods, i.e. Taylor series Approximation and Monte Carlo simulation combined with nonparametric probability density estimation are proposed. Results obtained for the RBTS and IEEE-RTS79 power systems are presented and the validity of the proposed methods is verified.