Uncertainty Analysis Applied to Predicting Water Inflow in Confined Water

Abstract

In order to predict the amount of water inflow accurately, define the corresponding water influx response quantitatively in the parameter variation interval, this paper used the interval uncertainty analysis method, combined with the non-probability set theory and derived the predictive formula of confined water inflow under two conditions, the formula comes from the initial deterministic simple large-well method calculation formula to the consideration of parameter variation uncertainty fusion large-well method calculation formula transformation. Using the mining data, comparing the upper and lower limits of the actual calculated boundary obtained by the Monte Carlo method and of the derived formula, the relative error of the calculation result of the confined water inflow expression under the two conditions is calculated 5% and 10% or less, corresponding to the rate of change of the parameter variables, the results show that: according to the first formula calculated by the empirical formula, the relative error of the water inflow are 5% and 10%, the corresponding rate of change of the parameter variable are 0.109 and 0.14; according to the second formula calculated by the actual survey calculation, when the relative error of the water inflow are 5% and 10%, the change rates of the corresponding parameter variables are 0.274 and 0.131 respectively. Under the identical error condition, the maximum value change rates of the parameter are greater than the change rates of the parameter when the minimum value is calculated, which is beneficial to the upper limit of the calculation of mine water inflow.