Uncertainties of soil moisture in historical simulations and future projections

Abstract

AbstractUncertainties of soil moisture in historical simulations (1920–2005) and future projections (2006–2080) were investigated by using the outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Community Earth System Model. The results showed that soil moisture climatology varies greatly among models despite the good agreement between the ensemble mean of simulated soil moisture and the Global Land Data Assimilation System data. The uncertainties of initial conditions and model structure showed similar spatial patterns and magnitudes, with high uncertainties in dry regions and low uncertainties in wet regions. In addition, the long‐term variability of model structure uncertainty rapidly decreased before 1980 and increased thereafter, but the uncertainty in initial conditions showed an upward trend over the entire time span. The model structure and initial conditions can cause uncertainties at all time scales. Despite these large uncertainties, almost all of the simulations showed significant decreasing linear trends in soil moisture for the 21st century, especially in the Mediterranean region, northeast and southwest South America, southern Africa, and southwestern USA.