Abstract
We discuss the background and methods for estimating uncertainty in a holistic manner in a regional terrestrial biota Full Carbon Account (FCA) using our experience in generating such an account for vast regions in northern Eurasia (at national and macroregional levels). For such an analysis, it is important to (1) provide a full account; (2) consider the relevance of a verified account, bearing in mind further transition to a certified account; (3) understand that any FCA is a fuzzy system; and (4) understand that a comprehensive assessment of uncertainties requires multiple harmonizing and combining of system constraints from results obtained by different methods. An important result of this analysis is the conclusion that only a relevant integration of inventory, process-based models, and measurements in situ generate sufficient prerequisites for a verified FCA. We show that the use of integrated methodology, at the current level of knowledge, and the system combination of available information, allow a verified FCA for large regions of the northern hemisphere to be made for current periods and for the recent past.
Highlights
Current knowledge of interactions between the biosphere and the atmosphere has led to the understanding that only a Full Carbon Account corresponds to the sense and ultimate goals of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (Nilsson et al, 2000a; Schulze et al, 2002)
This paper presents a brief analysis of experiences and lessons that resulted from assessing uncertainties of the terrestrial biota full carbon account at the regional scale for a large region of Siberia through an EU-funded project entitled “SIBERIAII” (Multi-sensor Concepts for Greenhouse Gas Accounting of Northern Eurasia), as well as from the full carbon account of the entire Russian terrestrial vegetation carried out by IIASA‟s Forestry Program during recent years
The integrated observing system is understood as a permanent tool to combine all relevant information sources and models of different types linked to primary polygons relevant for the Full Carbon Account (FCA)
Summary
Current knowledge of interactions between the biosphere and the atmosphere has led to the understanding that only a Full Carbon Account (itself and as the information and methodological nucleus of the Full Greenhouse Gas Account) corresponds to the sense and ultimate goals of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (Nilsson et al, 2000a; Schulze et al, 2002). For the partial account, which is defined by the Kyoto Protocol and subsequent international documents, Annex 1 countries have a greenhouse gas emission reduction target of 5.2% and the European Union of 8% below the 1990 level by the first commitment period 2008–2012 It means that the uncertainties for the Full Carbon Account should be minimized to at least a level which is able to provide a reliable identification of this reduction. Some scientific discussions (e.g., in the framework of the Global Carbon Project) presumably indicate required limits of uncertainties for summarized continental carbon fluxes (expressed, e.g., as Net Biome Production) caused by terrestrial vegetation at a level of ±20-25%; it seems to be too high if the Full Carbon Account were to become a subject of the post-Kyoto negotiation process. We attempt to illustrate the fact that only a consecutive holistic approach is able to serve as the background for a verified FCA, briefly analyze systems requirements of its structure and methodology and present typical examples (cf. Jonas et al, 1999)
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