Abstract
Anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) is an abundant fish species in the Yellow Sea, and its natural stock is decreasing rapidly in recent years. Based on the stock-recruitment (SR) data from 1987 to 2002 published in Zhao et al. (2003), the criterion BIC (Baycsian Information Criterion) is applied to selecting a suitable model from six normal and lognormal crror structured SR statistical models, the age-structured model is used to calculate the biological reference points (BRPs), and the precision of the SR parameters and BRPs are calculated using bootstrap method. The results indicate that the anchovy fishery resource in the Yellow Sea is in an over-fished state. The precaution management principle requires that the fishery should be closed immediately.
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