Uncertainties in risk assessment of CO2 pipelines

Abstract

The main goal of this study is to identify knowledge gaps and uncertainties in Quantitative Risk Assessments (QRA) for CO2 pipelines and to assess to what extent those gaps and uncertainties affect the final outcome of the QRA. The impact of methodological choices and uncertain values for input parameters on the results of QRA’s have been assessed through an extensive literature review and by using commercially available release, dispersion and effect models. It is made apparent that over the full life cycle of a QRA knowledge gaps and uncertainties are present that may have large scale impact on the accuracy of assessing risks of CO2 pipelines. These encompass the invalidated release and dispersion models, the currently used failure rates, choosing the type of release to be modeled and the dose-effect relationships assumed. Also recommendations are presented for the improvement of QRA’s for CO2 pipelines.