Abstract
Abstract A hydrodynamic model has been constructed for predicting the tidal currents off the south west coast of Singapore Island and has been verified against survey data from the area. A study examining the sensitivity of the model to changes in the input parameters has been undertaken and a statistical experimental design technique has been employed to determine the minimum number of computer runs required to quantify the sensitivity of the model. The uncertainty in predicting the time of the turn of tide is estimated from the statistical results as is the uncertainty in the predicted movement of drogues in both simple and complex tidal flows. The method is extended to estimate the uncertainties in the spread and concentration of a dye patch using a particle tracking random walk model and allowing for the uncertainties in the wind and in horizontal and vertical mixing rates as determined from a series of experimental studies of dye patch spread.
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