Uncertainties in internal doses calculated for mayak workers--a study of 63 cases

Abstract

This study makes use of 63 cases of Mayak workers exposed to Pu-239 with autopsy data and some late-time urine bioassay data. In addition, air-concentration data--used to construct monthly average values--are available for each case, which provide the time dependence and potential magnitudes of normal inhalation intakes for each case. The purpose of the study is to develop and test Bayesian methods of dose calculation for the Mayak workers. The first part of the study was to quantitatively characterise the uncertainties of the bioassay data. Then, starting with three different published biokinetic models, the data are fit by varying intake and model perturbation parameters, e.g., parameters influencing the lung, thoracic lymph nodes, liver and bone retention. Statistical self-consistency arguments are used to check the measurement uncertainty parameters within the Poisson-lognormal model. The second part of the study is to set up and test Bayesian dose calculations, which use the point determinations of biokinetic parameters from the study cases within a discrete, empirical Bayes approximation. The main conclusion of the study is that these methods are now ready to be applied to the entire Mayak worker population.