Abstract
Heating is arguably one of the most difficult sectors to decarbonise in the UK's energy system. Meeting the 80% greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2050 is likely to require that heat related emissions of CO2 from buildings are near zero by 2050, and there is a 70% reduction in emissions from industry (from 1990 levels). Though it is clear that the use of the natural gas network will reduce over time, recent modelling suggests a limited residual role for gas by 2050 to help meet peaks in heat demand. High levels of uncertainty about the way in which heat will be decarbonised present a number of challenges to policy makers. This paper will explore the risks and uncertainties associated with the transition to a low carbon heat system in the UK as outlined by the 4th carbon budget review. The potential impact of key uncertainties on the levelised costs of heat technologies and the development of energy networks are explored using a sensitivity analysis approach. Policy changes required to decarbonise the heat sector are also examined.
Highlights
All of the anticipated pathways to a low carbon heat system will overtime, mean significant changes for the UK's energy infrastructure
Though it is clear that the use of the gas network will reduce over time, recent modelling suggests a role for gas in 2050 to help meet peaks in heat demand
The aim of this paper is to explore the risks and uncertainties associated with the transition to a low carbon heat system in the UK out to 2030 and investigate the potential impact of these uncertainties in the development of energy supply infrastructure
Summary
All of the anticipated pathways to a low carbon heat system will overtime, mean significant changes for the UK's energy infrastructure. The relative roles played by gas, electricity and heat networks in the supply of UK's heat demand will vary with policy interventions, technology costs, availability of investment and socio-economic uncertainties. Almost half (46%) of the final energy consumed is used to provide heat. The UK's very low penetration of renewable technologies for heating is in part a direct consequence of ample supplies natural gas, availability of extensive gas transmission/distribution networks and the comparatively low upfront costs and efficiency of gas boilers. Though it is clear that the use of the gas network will reduce over time, recent modelling suggests a role for gas in 2050 to help meet peaks in heat demand. It is essential to identify and manage these uncertainties in order to support plausible pathways to a low carbon energy system
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