Uncertainties in CO2 Capture and Sequestration Costs

Abstract

The cost of CO2 avoidance depends on a wide variety of factors and assumptions whose impacts have not been fully considered in past assessments of carbon capture and sequestration technologies. Development of improved technology to capture and sequester the CO2 emitted by power plants using fossil fuels—especially coal—is the subject of major research efforts worldwide. The attraction of this option is that it would allow abundant world resources of fossil fuels to be used for power generation and other applications without contributing significantly to atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases. The two key barriers to carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), however, are the high cost of current CO2 capture technologies, and uncertainties regarding the technical, economic and political feasibility of CO2 storage options. As part of the U.S. Department of Energy's (USDOE's) Carbon Sequestration Program, an integrated modeling framework has been developed to evaluate the performance and costs of alternative CO2 capture and sequestration technologies for fossil-fueled power plants, in the context of multi-pollutant control requirements. This model (called the IECM-CS) allows for explicit characterization of the uncertainty or variability in any or all model input parameters. This chapter reviews the major sources of uncertainty or variability in CO2 cost estimates, and then uses the IECM-CS to analyze uncertainties in CO2 mitigation costs for currently available (amine-based) COR capture technologies applicable to coal-fired power plants.