Uncertainties in age- and gender-based health risk assessment for recreational bathing: Arsenic in Del Azul stream, Argentina

Fabio Peluso,Ignacio Masson,José González Castelain,Natalia Othax,Sabrina Dubny

doi:10.1080/10807039.2015.1107468

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe aim of this study was to assess the risk associated with recreational bathing at Del Azul stream, Argentina, a water course naturally containing Arsenic. It represents a case study on the carcinogenic risk for bathers and on how the risk varies among age groups and genders, analyzing the uncertainties of the model input variables and the risk quantification technique. The risk was probabilistically estimated with the 2D Monte Carlo method considering four age groups (5, 10, 15, and 20 years old) and separate exposure routes: accidental water intake, skin contact, and the two combined. Although in all the studied groups the risk levels were within safety limits, differences in risk values were observed among age groups and genders. Accidental water intake during bathing was the most risky exposure route. The risk decreased with age and it was higher in males than in females, with larger differences between the two older age groups. This could be attributed to the difference in the accidental water intake rate associated with the daily duration of the bathing event, which varied according to age and gender.

Highlights

Health Risk Assessment (HRA) constitutes a management tool that is becoming increasingly important in pollution analysis
The application of the 2D MC model with one input exposure variable used at a time as an epistemic uncertainty variable showed that the three major contributors to the epistemic uncertainty were the bathing event duration (Tevent), the annual frequency of exposure (EF) and the As concentration (Conc)
The 2D Cancer risk (CR) probability density function (PDF) curves for M and F were both shorter than those of the 1D CR PDFs for M and F because each of the 2D 95th percentile is the mean of the 95th percentile values obtained by the 2D MC procedure rather than a true 95th percentile as in the case of the 1D MC

Summary

Introduction

Health Risk Assessment (HRA) constitutes a management tool that is becoming increasingly important in pollution analysis. Among the most frequent HRA uses are the estimation of health risk under different scenarios of exposure to toxic substances in order to determine health effects and to aid in the setting of legal threshold limits (Falk-Filipsson et al 2007). Studies on uncertainty and variability are often found in the HRA literature whether considering input variables or scenarios of exposure (e.g., Carrington and Bolger 1998; Hertwich et al 1999; Binkowitz and Wartenberg 2001; Glorennec 2006; Benekos et al 2007; Filipsson et al 2011), models architecture (e.g., Slob 1994; Hertwich et al 2000; Moschandreas and Karuchit 2002; Falk-Filipsson et al 2007; Ascow II et al 2008), and Flatlands Hydrology Institute (UNCPBA, CIC, MA), Av. Italia 780, F.

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