Abstract
Uncertainties in the estimates of hydrocarbon volumes are traditionally given by the Monte Carlo method, which is based on classical probability theory. A new and better way to achieve the same objective is to use fuzzy arithmetic. This new math is based on possibility theory derived from fuzzy set theory. A comparison of these two approaches is given, using an example from a recent AAPG Bulletin paper. The fuzzy mathematics approach is more advantageous because, unlike the Monte Carlo method, it does not have to assume the (statistical) distributions of geologic variables, and also because of its parsimonious computations. Furthermore, this new approach has revealed that the estimates of the volumes of petroleum available for entrapment are unreliable where the ratio of he volume expelled from source rock over the volume lost during migration is near unity.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
