Uncertainties and trends in extreme rainfall series in Tuscany, Italy: effects on urban drainage networks design

Abstract

Sound basin management at urban or greater scale needs reliable design storm definition. A statistical analysis is carried out on extreme annual rainfall series for durations of 1, 3, 6 and 12 hours occurring at two gauges in Tuscany, Italy. Kendall's test is applied to the extremal series to detect a definite increasing (or decreasing) trend. A special form of an ARIMA model is also fitted to the series to quantify possible linear trends and their respective significance. Results show a clearly increasing trend at shortest duration at both gauges, no trend at longer ones. Time evolution of design storms for all durations and return periods up to 25 years is derived and analysed based on Gumbel distribution. Applications are presented concerning impacts of uncertainties for the design of urban drainage networks.