Abstract
Water environment carrying capacity (WECC) is an effective indicator that can help resolve the contradiction between social and economic development and water environment pollution. Considering the complexity of the water environment and socioeconomic systems in Northeast China, this study establishes an evaluation index system and a system dynamics (SD) model of WECC in Fushun City, Liaoning, China, through the combination of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and SD. In consideration of the uncertainty of the future development of society, the Monte Carlo and scenario analysis methods are used to simulate the WECC of Fushun City. Results show that if the current social development mode is maintained, then the WECC in Fushun will have a slow improvement in the future, and a “general” carrying state with a WECC index of 0.566 in 2025 will be developed. Moreover, focusing on economic development (Scheme 1 with a WECC index of [0.22, 0.45] in 2025) or environmental protection (Scheme 2 with a WECC index of [0.48, 0.68] in 2025) cannot effectively improve the local water environment. Only by combining the two coordinated development modes (Scheme 3) can WECC be significantly improved and achieve “general” or “good” carrying state with a WECC index of [0.59, 0.79]. An important development of this study is that the probability of each scheme’s realization can be calculated after different schemes are formulated. In turn, the feasibility of the scheme will be evaluated after knowing the probability, so as to determine the path suitable for local development. This is of great significance for future urban planning.
Highlights
The frequency of water shortages and environmental pollution caused by population growth and rapid economic growth has been increasing since the 1980s [1,2]
Water environment carrying capacity (WECC) was in a “poor” carrying state, which indicates that the water environment in the Fushun region has been poor and polluted in recent years [27]
From a partial point of view, the author analyzed the current situation of the WECC in the Fushun area from the aspects of social economy, water resources, and water environment
Summary
The frequency of water shortages and environmental pollution caused by population growth and rapid economic growth has been increasing since the 1980s [1,2]. Water environment carrying capacity (WECC) is defined as the largest population and economic scale that the water environment can support in a specific region for some period without evident adverse effects on the local water environment [3]. WECC has been studied for human–water environment sustainability [4]. Since the 1990s, researchers have been working on the relationship between the water environment and social economy [5]. Wei et al (2014) developed an index system that can be used to assess land carrying capacity through the conceptual model of “driving. Public Health 2020, 17, 5860; doi:10.3390/ijerph17165860 www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph
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