Uncertain Skies. Forecasting Typhoons in Hong Kong, ca. 1874-1906

Abstract

This paper explores the conceptualisation of “uncertainty” in late nineteenth-century meteorological thought. By investigating the story of meteorological forecasting in nineteenth and early twentieth century Hong Kong, it considers the changing ways in which forecasting was judged historically. In the early nineteenth century forecasting the weather was considerar impossible. By the end of the century, it was confidently expected that the much improved understanding of weather paterns would lead to the ability to better predict them. During the intervenint period “uncertainty” competed with “certainty” and “prediction” was mistaken for “predictability”. The shift in perception of what science could achieve and pressure to accurately predict typhoons. Such concerns helped sahpe the course of meteorology globally from a series of subjective teories into an objective pragmatic science based on observational analysis. This article seeks to highlight the practices, places and experiences that contributed knowledgement to the burgeoning field overseas whilst also connectin with others in this volume by considerin the circumstances that contributed to chaging perceptions of forecasting. In particular, it also explores how the qualification of wheather phenomenon- in this case the typhoon- as “unpredictable” or “uncertain” opened the door to innovation and discovery.