UNCERTAIN PROBABILITIES

Abstract

The uncertainty of probabilistic evaluations results from the lack of sufficient information and/or knowledge underlying those random events. Uncertainty representation in the form of second order probability distribution or interval evaluations does not cause any objections from the theoretical point of view. On the other hand, what is worthy in the second order probabilities is that they allow one to model a real uncertainty of subjective probabilistic evaluations resulting from the lack of information and/or knowledge. Processing of uncertain information regarding probabilistic evaluations can help make a validated decision about the collection of additional information aimed to remove completely or to reduce the existing uncertainty.