Uncertain and multi-objective programming models for crop planting structure optimization

Abstract

Crop planting structure optimization is a significant way to increase agricultural economic benefits and improve agricultural water management. The complexities of fluctuating stream conditions, varying economic profits, and uncertainties and errors in estimated modeling parameters, as well as the complexities among economic, social, natural resources and environmental aspects, have led to the necessity of developing optimization models for crop planting structure which consider uncertainty and multi-objectives elements. In this study, three single-objective programming models under uncertainty for crop planting structure optimization were developed, including an interval linear programming model, an inexact fuzzy chance-constrained programming (IFCCP) model and an inexact fuzzy linear programming (IFLP) model. Each of the three models takes grayness into account. Moreover, the IFCCP model considers fuzzy uncertainty of parameters/variables and stochastic characteristics of constraints, while the IFLP model takes into account the fuzzy uncertainty of both constraints and objective functions. To satisfy the sustainable development of crop planting structure planning, a fuzzy-optimizationtheory-based fuzzy linear multi-objective programming model was developed, which is capable of reflecting both uncertainties and multi-objective. In addition, a multiobjective fractional programming model for crop structure optimization was also developed to quantitatively express the multi-objective in one optimization model with the numerator representing maximum economic benefits and the denominator representing minimum crop planting area allocation. These models better reflect actual situations, considering the uncertainties and multi-objectives of crop planting structure optimization systems. The five models developed were then applied to a real case study in Minqin County, north-west China. The advantages, the applicable conditions and the solution methods of each model are expounded. Detailed analysis of results of each model and their comparisons demonstrate the feasibility and applicability of the models developed, therefore decision makers can choose the appropriate model when making decisions.