Abstract
The scientific and accurate evaluation of water resources carrying capacity has good social, environmental and resource benefits. Reasonable selection of evaluation parameters is the key step to realize efficient and sustainable development of water resources. Taking Zanhuang County in the North China Plain as the research area, this study selected fuzzy comprehensive evaluation models with different weights in the established evaluation index framework to explore the sources of uncertainty affecting the evaluation results of water resources carrying capacity. By using the sensitivity analysis method of index weight, the index with the biggest influence factor on the evaluation result is selected to reduce the uncertainty problems such as index redundancy and small correlation degree. The results show that the correlation and reliable of comprehensive evaluation value obtained by different weight methods is different. The evaluation result obtained by using the analytic hierarchy process is more relevant than the entropy weight method, and it is more consistent with the actual load-bearing situation. The study of sensitivity index shows that water area index is the biggest factor affecting the change of evaluation results, and water resources subsystem and socio-economic subsystem play a dominant role in the whole evaluation framework. The results show that strengthening the data quality control of index assignment and weight method is helpful to reduce the error of water resources carrying capacity evaluation. It can also provide scientific basis for the improvement of fuzzy evaluation model.
Highlights
Based on the consideration of these uncertain factors, this paper studies the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model by comparing the weight method determined by the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy weight method [23,24] under certain technical outline standards
∑5t=1 bt αt k where θ is the comprehensive evaluation value of water resources carrying capacity based on the comprehensive evaluation result matrix C; bkt is the value of the membership degree of each evaluation index; k is the coefficient set when the dominant role needs to be highlighted, usually k = 1
In the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity, the weight of each index in the evaluation index system can be obtained with the help of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, but it cannot judge which index has a high impact on the evaluation
Summary
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. At present, studying the carrying capacity of water resources is a prerequisite for determining the important development relations between water resources and population, ecology and social economy in the region [3]. Strengthening the study of uncertainty of water resources carrying capacity is conducive to improving the reliability of evaluation results. The fuzzy evaluation model is selected as an example to study the uncertainty of the evaluation results of the water resources carrying capacity [17,18]. This study provides reliable scientific basis for reducing the uncertainty of the results of the fuzzy evaluation model and improving the efficiency of water resources utilization [26,27]. Taking Zanhuang County in the North China Plain as an example, the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is carried out with certain characteristic parameters [28,29], which can provide reference for water resources managers in the North China Plain
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