Unbiased total electron content (UTEC), their fluctuations, and correlation with seismic activity over Japan

Abstract

Earthquakes are among the most dangerous events that occur on earth and many scientists have been investigating the underlying processes that take place before earthquakes occur. These investigations are fueling efforts towards developing both single and multiple parameter earthquake forecasting methods based on earthquake precursors. One potential earthquake precursor parameter that has received significant attention within the last few years is the ionospheric total electron content (TEC). Despite its growing popularity as an earthquake precursor, TEC has been under great scrutiny because of the underlying biases associated with the process of acquiring and processing TEC data. Future work in the field will need to demonstrate our ability to acquire TEC data with the least amount of biases possible thereby preserving the integrity of the data. This paper describes a process for removing biases using raw TEC data from the standard Rinex files obtained from any global positioning satellites system. The process is based on developing an unbiased TEC (UTEC) data and model that can be more adaptable to serving as a precursor signal for earthquake forecasting. The model was used during the days and hours leading to the earthquake off the coast of Tohoku, Japan on March 11, 2011 with interesting results. The model takes advantage of the large amount of data available from the GPS Earth Observation Network of Japan to display near real-time UTEC data as the earthquake approaches and for a period of time after the earthquake occurred.