UM ESTUDO SOBRE A INCIDÊNCIA DE DENGUE EM MUNICÍPIOS DA REGIÃO DA ALTA PAULISTA

Abstract

Currently, dengue is considered one of the biggest public health problems in Brazil and in the world, especially in tropical regions, where environmental conditions (temperature, rainfall, the urbanization process, etc.) favor the presence of breeding sites, which allow the development and the proliferation of the Aedes Aegyptimosquito, the vector of the disease. The increase in the number of dengue cases is the result of several factors, which facilitate the introduction, transmission, and spread of the virus, such as the use of increasingly faster means of transport; the increase in the human migration process; the disorderly urbanization; the fragility of the structure and planning, mainly of the peripheries; the increase in the use of disposable containers and the lack of environmental sanitation. Thus, the general aim of this work was to analyze the incidence of dengue in counties in the region of Alta Paulista. Specifically, fixed time series models were adjusted for historical dengue incidence series in the six main counties in that region and incidence forecasts were obtained, using the models that provided better adjustments to the data. The results showed that the exponential smoothing models are the most robust to adjust the dengue incidence data and, consequently to forecast, allowing dengue prevention and control actions to be continuous.