Ultra-short-term wind power forecasting techniques: comparative analysis and future trends

Abstract

In recent years, the integration of wind power into the grid has steadily increased, but the volatility and uncertainty of wind power pose significant challenges to grid planning, scheduling and operation. Ultra-short term wind power forecasting technology as the basis of daily scheduling decision can accurately predict the future hourly wind power output, and has important research significance for ensuring the safe and stable operation of power grid. Although research on ultra-short-term wind power forecasting technology has reached maturity, practical engineering applications still face several challenges. These challenges include the limited potential for improving the accuracy of numerical weather forecasts, the issue of missing historical data from new wind farms, and the need to achieve accurate power prediction under extreme weather scenarios. Therefore, this paper aims to critically review the current proposed ultra-short-term wind power forecasting methods. On this basis, analyze the combined power forecasting method under extreme weather scenarios, and illustrate its effectiveness through wind farm case studies. Finally, according to the development trend and demand of future power systems, future research directions are proposed.