Ultra-short-term operation situation prediction method of active distribution network based on convolutional neural network long short term memory

Abstract

The large-scale and high-permeability access of distributed generations (DGs) is making the distribution networks develop into active distribution networks (ADNs). The increasing complexity of the structure of ADNs also increases the vulnerabilities for cyberattacks. To accurately predict the operation situation of ADNs no matter whether cyberattacks occurred, this paper proposes an ultra-short-term operation situation prediction method of ADNs based on CNN-LSTM. Firstly, an ADNs situation prediction index system is established, which can comprehensively evaluate the future operation situation of ADNs from different perspectives. Secondly, a multi-feature data reconstruction method based on the time sliding window algorithm is proposed, which is utilized for constructing 2-dimensional matrix and as input datasets for multiple independent CNN-LSTM models to predict each situation prediction index. Then, there are 8 independent CNN-LSTM models shared same input matrix to predict 8 ADNs situation prediction index value without interfering with each other. Among them, CNN is used to extract the spatial correlation feature vectors of ADNs historical operation data and meteorological factor data in ultra-short term, which are reconstructed in time series and used as the input data of LSTM. LSTM is used to extract long-term historical temporal relationship to obtain ADNs operation situation prediction index value. Finally, we utilize the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to calculate the future operation situation of ultra-short-term ADNs. Taking a real ADNs with 33-node as an example, we compared our proposed methodology to other existing excellent machine learning-based models, the result demonstrates that our proposed prediction method exhibits outstanding performance in time consumption and prediction accuracy.