Abstract
Some models have been proposed for the projection of future size of population for short and long terms under the stability conditions with changed regime of fertility schedule. The main aim of this paper is to see the size of population if fertility is curtailed up to the level of replacement, especially in developing countries. Models have been illustrated taking a set of real and hypothetical data consistent with the current demographic scenario of India. It was found that the proposed models are the extended forms of the models developed by the previous researchers and the projected population are more or less consistent with them.
Highlights
In a stable population theory when population growth rate becomes zero, the population size becomes fixed and such population is known as stationary population or a population at the replacement level or an ultimate population
That is the size of ultimate population would be larger than the expected one due to the existence of a high fertility rate built up by the past age structure
Due to momentum, the population tends to increase for some time as shown in Figure 2 Accounting such type of decay if it for A years ( A is less than or equal to the lower limit of the reproductive period), Ryder [11] made an adjustment to Keyfitz's model (1) and according to him the ultimate population size becomes
Summary
In a stable population theory when population growth rate becomes zero, the population size becomes fixed and such population is known as stationary population or a population at the replacement level or an ultimate population. Due to momentum, the population tends to increase for some time as shown in Figure 2 Accounting such type of decay if it for A years ( A is less than or equal to the lower limit of the reproductive period), Ryder [11] made an adjustment to Keyfitz's model (1) and according to him the ultimate population size becomes,. Kulkarni [7] has proposed two types of reduction pattern in fertility schedule, namely exponential and linear if time to reach the replacement level is less than or equal to the lower limit of the reproductive period. A linear type of reduction in fertility schedule would be more useful at the beginning and exponential decline at the later stage This approach has been taken into account in this study and models are derived .
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