Abstract
Significance The Rada is dragging its feet on legislation on the special court and electoral reform, despite pressure from the IMF and EU. The two months remaining before parliament goes into recess are the last window for President Petro Poroshenko's team to call early legislative elections, if he is minded to do so. Impacts The uncertainty created by early elections would effectively rule out further IMF tranche disbursements for that period. Election campaigning, whenever it happens, may have a destabilising effect on the economy and domestic currency markets. There is talk of an Armenia-style reform shifting power from president to parliament, but little time remains to engineer this.
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